How to Tolerate Uncertainty in Uncertain Times

Why Uncertainty Feels So Uncomfortable

Uncertainty is a natural part of life. Whether related to health, relationships, finances, career decisions, or world events, there will always be situations where the outcome is unknown.

Yet uncertainty often feels uncomfortable because the human mind is designed to seek predictability. We naturally want to know what will happen next, whether a decision is the right one, and how situations will turn out.

When answers are unavailable, the mind often works overtime trying to create them.

Questions such as:

• What if something goes wrong?

• What if I make the wrong decision?

• What if things never improve?

• What if I can't handle what comes next?

are common responses to uncertainty.

These thoughts are not a sign that something is wrong. They reflect the mind's natural tendency to anticipate, predict, and problem-solve.

The challenge arises when uncertainty becomes something that feels impossible to tolerate.

What Is Intolerance of Uncertainty?

Intolerance of uncertainty refers to a tendency to view uncertain situations as stressful, threatening, or unacceptable (Carleton, 2016).

Research has identified intolerance of uncertainty as an important factor in anxiety, particularly generalized anxiety disorder (Dugas et al., 1998).

People with a lower tolerance for uncertainty often find themselves:

• Overthinking decisions

• Seeking reassurance from others

• Researching excessively

• Replaying conversations

• Avoiding situations with unknown outcomes

• Looking for guarantees before taking action

While these strategies may provide temporary relief, they often strengthen anxiety over time.

The brain learns that uncertainty is something dangerous that must be eliminated rather than a normal part of life.

Why the Search for Certainty Can Keep Anxiety Going

One of the most challenging aspects of anxiety is that it often disguises itself as problem-solving.

Worry can feel productive.

Overthinking can feel responsible.

Researching can feel helpful.

Yet many of the questions that drive anxiety have no immediate answers.

Questions such as:

• Will this relationship work out?

• Will I get the job?

• Will my health improve?

• What will happen next?

cannot always be solved today.

The more time spent trying to eliminate uncertainty, the more attention remains focused on what cannot be known.

Research suggests that repeated reassurance seeking and attempts to gain certainty may maintain anxiety rather than resolve it (Salkovskis, 1991).

The Goal Is Not Certainty

Many people assume emotional well-being comes from knowing that everything will work out.

Both Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) suggest a different perspective.

The goal is not to become certain about the future.

The goal is to develop confidence in the ability to respond to whatever the future brings.

This is an important distinction.

Instead of asking:

"How can I know everything will be okay?"

A more helpful question may be:

"How can I continue living my life even when I don't know exactly what will happen?"

1. Separate Possibility From Probability

One of the most effective CBT strategies for uncertainty involves distinguishing between what is possible and what is likely.

When anxiety takes over, possible outcomes often begin to feel inevitable.

For example:

• It is possible that a job interview goes poorly.

• It is possible that a relationship ends.

• It is possible that a health concern becomes serious.

However, possibility is not the same as probability.

When facing uncertainty, ask:

• What evidence supports this fear?

• What evidence challenges it?

• Am I treating a possibility as a certainty?

This shift helps create more balanced and realistic thinking.

2. Notice When the Mind Is Demanding Answers

ACT encourages people to become aware of how often the mind demands certainty.

The mind may say:

• Figure this out.

• Don't make a mistake.

• Get more information.

• Think about it one more time.

Rather than immediately obeying these thoughts, it can be helpful to simply notice them.

A useful ACT skill is cognitive defusion, which involves stepping back from thoughts rather than becoming entangled in them.

For example:

Instead of:

"I can't handle not knowing."

Try:

"I'm noticing the thought that I can't handle not knowing."

The goal is not to argue with the thought.

The goal is to recognize that thoughts are mental events, not facts.

3. Reduce Reassurance Seeking

Reassurance seeking is one of the most common responses to uncertainty.

Examples include:

• Asking others for repeated confirmation

• Constantly checking symptoms online

• Repeatedly reviewing decisions

• Seeking guarantees before taking action

While reassurance may provide short-term comfort, the relief often fades quickly.

Over time, learning to sit with uncertainty without immediately seeking reassurance helps build confidence and flexibility.

4. Return to the Present Moment

Anxiety often pulls attention into imagined futures.

ACT emphasizes returning attention to the present moment.

Questions that can help include:

• What is happening right now?

• What requires my attention today?

• What is the next step available to me?

The present moment is often more manageable than the future scenarios created by an anxious mind.

Returning to the present does not eliminate uncertainty, but it can reduce the tendency to become consumed by it.

5. Focus on What You Can Control

One of the most practical ways to respond to uncertainty is to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled.

Within Your Control

• Your actions

• Your effort

• Your choices

• Your self-care

• Your responses

Outside Your Control

• Other people's decisions

• Future outcomes

• Unexpected events

• Past mistakes

• External circumstances

When attention becomes stuck on things outside of personal control, gently redirect it toward meaningful actions that can be taken today.

6. Let Values Guide Decisions

Uncertainty often creates decision paralysis.

People may delay action until they feel completely confident.

The problem is that confidence frequently arrives after action, not before it.

ACT encourages people to identify the values they want to embody regardless of uncertainty.

Examples include:

• Courage

• Compassion

• Honesty

• Growth

• Connection

• Curiosity

A helpful question is:

"If fear and uncertainty were not making this decision, what would I choose based on my values?"

Values provide direction when certainty is unavailable.

7. Build Confidence Through Action

Many people believe they need certainty before moving forward.

In reality, confidence is often built through experience.

Every time a person takes meaningful action despite uncertainty, they gather evidence that they can handle the unknown.

This might involve:

• Having a difficult conversation

• Applying for a new opportunity

• Setting a boundary

• Making a decision without perfect information

• Taking a step toward an important goal

Resilience develops through action, not prediction.

Building a Life That Is Bigger Than Uncertainty

Many of life's most meaningful experiences involve uncertainty.

Love involves uncertainty.

Growth involves uncertainty.

Change involves uncertainty.

New opportunities involve uncertainty.

Waiting for complete certainty before engaging fully in life often means postponing the very experiences that matter most.

The objective is not to eliminate uncertainty.

The objective is to prevent uncertainty from becoming the deciding factor in every choice.

Final Thoughts

Uncertainty is not a problem that can be solved once and for all. It is a normal part of being human.

Research suggests that emotional well-being depends less on eliminating uncertainty and more on developing the ability to respond flexibly when uncertainty appears.

CBT helps people challenge unhelpful thinking patterns and evaluate fears more realistically. ACT helps people make room for uncertainty, stay connected to their values, and continue taking meaningful action.

Together, these approaches offer a powerful reminder:

Confidence does not come from knowing exactly how the future will unfold.

It comes from trusting your ability to respond to whatever the future brings.

References

Beck, J. S. (2011). Cognitive behavior therapy: Basics and beyond (2nd ed.). Guilford Press.

Carleton, R. N. (2016). Into the unknown: A review and synthesis of contemporary models involving uncertainty. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 39, 30–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2016.02.007

Dugas, M. J., Gagnon, F., Ladouceur, R., & Freeston, M. H. (1998). Generalized anxiety disorder: A preliminary test of a conceptual model. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 36(2), 215–226.

Hayes, S. C., Strosahl, K. D., & Wilson, K. G. (2012). Acceptance and commitment therapy: The process and practice of mindful change (2nd ed.). Guilford Press.

Kashdan, T. B., & Rottenberg, J. (2010). Psychological flexibility as a fundamental aspect of health. Clinical Psychology Review, 30(7), 865–878.

Salkovskis, P. M. (1991). The importance of behaviour in the maintenance of anxiety and panic: A cognitive account. Behavioural Psychotherapy, 19(1), 6–19.